Working Papers/Work in Progress

⚡️A Narrative for Fed Information Shocks (Job Market Paper)

Abstract: The concept of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Information Effect represents a pivotal shift in understanding how Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements influence the private sector’s perceptions of non-monetary economic fundamentals. This phenomenon suggests that when the Fed tightens monetary policy, it may actually signal positive developments in the economy’s health, leading to increased output. This stands in stark contrast to the predictions made by standard Vector Autoregressions (VARs) and traditional interpretations of monetary policy. We find significant instances throughout recent history where this effect not only exists but also plays a critical role in shaping economic outcomes.

• Presented at the 94th Southern Economic Association Annual Conference

🏠 Revisiting the Housing Channel of Monetary Policy: A Narrative Sign Restriction Approach [Under Review]

⛽️ Refining Sharp Identification: Narrative Restrictions for Oil Market Shocks (with Ana Maria Herrera and Elena Pesavento)

We combine narrative identification with sign restrictions to distinguish supply, demand, and speculative oil shocks while preserving the flexibility of sign-restricted VARs. Historical episodes discipline the admissible sign patterns, avoiding contentious zero or elasticity bounds. We show that EBR restrictions are not necessary in deriving the conventional market response.

🌧️ Praying for Rain: A Comment on “Rainfall and the Democratic Window of Opportunity” (with Kim Huynh and David Jacho-Chavez)

📈 Exchange Traded Funds and Market Volatility (with Jung Jae Kim)

🎢 Dissecting the Intersectoral Reallocation Effects of Industry Level Labor Productivities in the Philippines: Are the Effects in the Right Direction? (with Jesus Dumagan) [Under Review]

🤑 Measuring Sectoral ”Minimum” Wages Based on Labor Productivities and Wage Shares in GDP from the Input Output Accounts (with Jesus Dumagan)

• Presented at the Philippine Economics Society Annual Meeting 2022.

📉 Are there Long Term Consequences to China’s Deflationary Bout? Case of the ASEAN (with Carlos Pamittan, Vince San Juan, and Annika Subido) [Revision Requested]

⚠️ Term at Risk Estimation for the Philippines [Revision Requested]

🤑 Nationalizing Minimum Wage: Can the Philippines take the Toll? [Revision Requested]

• Presented at the 43rd Federation of ASEAN Economic Associations Conference 2019.

👨‍🏫 Does TAP have your Back? An Impact Evaluation of an Organized Peer Tutorial Program
[Under Review]

Published Papers

Comparing “Exclusion” to “Neutralization” in Computing Core Inflation and Testing Cointegration of Core with Headline Inflation: Results for the Philippines (with Jesus Dumagan). DLSU Business & Economics Review 33(2), 101-119.

Policy Publications

Assessing the potential impacts of the tax reform for acceleration and inclusion and the Build Build Build program (with Ceasar Cororaton and Marites Tiongco). AKI Policy Brief Series, 2019(2)

BSP Discussion Papers

Beyond Correlations: A Counterfactual Analysis of BSP’s Asset Purchases using Synthetic Control Groups (with Justin Fernandez). BSP Discussion Paper Series 2024-12.

Estimating the Impact of BSP Policy Adjustments on Bank Lending: A Panel VAR Model Approach. (with Joan Allon-Pineda, Sarah Castanares, Jasmin Dacio, Shirra De Guia, and Maureen Rosellon) BSP Discussion Paper Series 2024-08.