Selected Research Articles

This page a number of my shareable works which are more often than not working papers. All of my works are not listed due to confidentiality agreements with some concerned agencies. Some published works may not be listed on this page as well but are available on other sources

Term at Risk Estimation for the Philippines

Understanding the movements of the yields on key government securities and the risks associated with the downside of the distribution of the yield curve are crucial to understanding the movements of the markets influenced by short-term rates. Moreover, understanding how macrofinancial factors and domestic financial conditions can be linked to these yields is a crucial linkage which can deepen understanding on the transmissions and spillovers from the financial markets toward key economic variables. This study seeks to propose and implement a framework that quantifies the risks associated with the downside of yields and estimate a yield curve with these tail risks considered. Moreover, the framework can be used as a scenario analysis tool on seeing changes in the yield curve given changes in macrofinancial conditions in the economy.

Do Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures Make a Difference?

The COVID-19 pandemic has served as a turning point for central banks in the formulation of their monetary policy in achieving its core mandates. Central banks (CBs) can often act far faster than other institutions and pass policies that can keep the economy buoyant amid harsh economic conditions. Traditionally, CBs have used their main policy tools to address potential hurdles during times of crisis such as a lack of domestic liquidity, heightened possibility of bank runs, crashing financial markets, and a higher cost of borrowing. These main policy tools come in the form of rate cuts, reserve requirement cuts, and exceptions, and other similar measures. However, COVID-19 presents a huge challenge as it impacts the real economy directly, affecting the supply and demand side substantially with a recovery that is pegged as slow for the remainder of the year. As such, the BSP and other CBs have had to go beyond the traditional ambit of policy tools and venture with other policies that may be unconventional but may quell unrest in the financial markets. This study aims to determine the causal impact of unconventional policy decisions made by the BSP on key financial market variables. It was determined that the unconventional policies done by the BSP were able to lower the rate of borrowing among banks as well and increase investor confidence in the return performance of Philippine bonds. In contrast, this study finds that unconventional policies have no significant causal impact on the equities market and the FX market.

Have our Initial Responses for COVID-19 Eased Financial Markets: Case of the Philippines

The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely affected the financial markets of the world. In this paper, we zero in on the Philippine financial markets and determine whether the initial policy responses of the national government and the domestic bourse were able to quell the uncertainty and ease the financial markets. In evaluating the effect of theses measures, we consider a simple generalized Chow’s test to determine if key policies and market events were able to significantly affect a slew financial market variables representing the FX market, the equities market, the bond market, and the cost of borrowing. The results suggest that the initial monetary and fiscal actions have been able to ease the financial markets as a modest rebound in the equities market, an appreciation of the Peso, and a lower cost of borrowing and lending have been observed for the period in review.

Nationalizing Minimum Wage: Can the Philippines Take The Toll

Implementing a national minimum wage as stipulated by HB 7787 has been a contentious issue since it has been proposed in congress. Previous laws have pushed for regional minimum wages to better represent the basket of goods in a region. However, various labor groups have complained about the inefficiency in this strategy given the inflationary repercussions of TRAIN. This study seeks to determine the effects of setting a national minimum wage for the country. It has been determined that the proposed law will have adverse repercussions of numerous indicators such as production, inflation and will force labor movements from formal to informal sectors. The downward rigidity expected from minimum wage is clearly seen throughout the simulations. It is recommended that the current policy proposal be reevaluated to ensure it meets its policy objectives and prevent externalities as a result of the implementation.

This research is in collaboration with Dr. Marites Tiongco and Dr. Ceasar Cororaton. The working draft paper is in raw stages used as submission for a course requirement. This paper was also presented in the 43rd Federation of ASEAN Economic Associations Conference.

Does TAP Have Your Back? An Impact Evaluation of an Organized Peer Tutorial Program

Organized Peer Tutorial Programs have proliferated in the past few years due to their ability to guide and encourage students to be able to perform better in academic endeavors. However, school management find it vital to obtain necessary external and internal validity measures to assess whether or not the tutorial programs are effective. This study seeks to determine the impact of the Economics Organization’s Tutorial Aptitude Program (TAP) under the Office of the Associate Dean of the School of Economics on key outcome indicators in the academic performance of students studying in the university. A quasi-experimental methodology has been conducted using both a Two Stage Least Squares Framework and a Propensity Score Matching Framework to estimate various treatment effects on the effectivity of the program. It has been concluded that the TAP has had significant positive effects on the final grades of students suggesting that the program has met its goals of raising key academic indicators. However, a small sample and ethical considerations may have played a role in the insignificance of some estimates.